Can Teacher Evaluation Policies Improve Teacher Quality by Removing Low-Performing Educators?

This study investigates whether teacher evaluation policies can improve teacher quality by increasing the exit of low-performing educators. Using data from Chicago Public Schools’ REACH evaluation system (2012–2017), the researchers analyzed teacher performance scores, tenure status, and exit rates. They found that receiving an Unsatisfactory rating increased tenured teacher exit rates by 50%, primarily through involuntary dismissals. Replacement teachers were significantly higher-performing, leading to an overall improvement in teacher quality. However, the policy’s impact was limited since fewer than 1% of teachers received Unsatisfactory ratings. Simulations suggest that raising performance standards could further enhance teacher quality.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Sartain, L., & Steinberg, M. P. (2023). Can personnel policy improve teacher quality? The role of evaluation and the impact of exiting low-performing teachers. Education Finance and Policy, 20(1), 137–176. https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp_a_00417

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

This study examines whether teacher evaluation policies can enhance teacher quality by increasing the exit of low-performing educators. Specifically, it investigates how Chicago Public Schools' (CPS) implementation of the Recognizing Educators Advancing Chicago Students (REACH) teacher evaluation system influenced the departure of low-rated teachers and whether their replacements performed at a higher level. The study also explores whether increasing the threshold for satisfactory teaching could further improve teacher quality across the district.

The research seeks to answer two key questions:

1. What is the impact of teacher evaluation reform on the exit rates of low-performing teachers, and does this effect vary by tenure status?

2. Who replaces the exited low-performing teachers, and does their hiring lead to an overall improvement in teacher quality?

By addressing these questions, the study contributes to ongoing debates about teacher accountability and the effectiveness of performance-based evaluation systems in education.

Previous Literature

The study builds on a substantial body of research that highlights the importance of teacher quality for student learning. Numerous studies have established that teachers are the most critical school-based factor influencing student achievement and long-term outcomes. Previous research has also shown that there is significant variation in teacher effectiveness, with some teachers consistently producing better student outcomes than others.

Prior studies on teacher evaluation reforms suggest that accountability policies can lead to improvements in teacher performance and increase the exit rates of low-performing teachers. For example, research from Washington, D.C., Tennessee, and Houston has shown that evaluation reforms led to the removal of ineffective teachers. Other studies have found that even in the absence of direct dismissal policies, providing information about teacher performance can lead to higher voluntary exit rates among low-rated educators.

However, teacher tenure protections and contractual job security measures have historically made it difficult to remove underperforming teachers. Research has shown that principals often avoid giving low ratings due to the bureaucratic complexity of dismissing tenured teachers, which can involve extensive documentation, improvement plans, and appeals. Some scholars have also argued that dismissing teachers may not be beneficial if the available labor pool is insufficient to provide strong replacements.

This study adds to the literature by examining the impact of a large-scale evaluation reform in CPS, focusing on the differential effects of the policy on tenured and non-tenured teachers and analyzing the overall changes in teacher quality resulting from the policy-induced exits.

Data

The study utilizes administrative data from CPS covering the 2012–2017 school years. The dataset includes teacher evaluation records, personnel records, and measures of teacher performance. The key variables include:

• Teacher evaluation scores: Summative evaluation ratings based on classroom observations (70%) and student growth measures (30%).

• Teacher tenure status: Identification of teachers as tenured or non-tenured.

• Teacher exit data: Information on whether teachers remained in CPS, voluntarily resigned, or were dismissed.

• Replacement teacher performance: Measures of the quality of newly hired teachers.

The final dataset includes 44,637 teacher-year observations for 22,172 unique teachers. The study focuses on how receiving an Unsatisfactory rating influenced teacher exit rates and compares the performance of replacement teachers to the teachers they replaced.

Methods

The study employs a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the causal effect of receiving an Unsatisfactory rating on teacher exit. This approach compares teachers who scored just below the Unsatisfactory rating threshold (who were classified as low-performing) with those who scored just above it (who were classified as Developing). Because assignment to either category is close to random for teachers near the threshold, this method provides a strong estimate of the policy’s impact on teacher exit.

The researchers analyze teacher exits by tenure status, recognizing that tenured teachers have stronger job protections than non-tenured teachers. They also investigate the impact of teacher exits on subsequent teacher quality by comparing performance measures of replacement teachers to the performance of the exited teachers.

To further assess the potential impact of raising the evaluation threshold, the study uses a policy simulation to estimate the effects of classifying more teachers as Unsatisfactory. The simulation compares the distribution of new teacher performance to that of low-rated teachers who exited CPS under the current policy.

Findings/Size Effects

The study finds that teacher evaluation reform significantly increased the exit rates of low-performing teachers, particularly for tenured educators. Key findings include:

• Teacher exit rates: Among tenured teachers, receiving an Unsatisfactory rating increased the likelihood of leaving CPS by 50%. This effect was primarily driven by involuntary exits, suggesting that the evaluation system successfully identified and removed underperforming tenured teachers. For non-tenured teachers, exit rates were already high, and the evaluation rating itself did not significantly affect their departure rates.

• Replacement teacher quality: Teachers who replaced low-rated educators performed significantly better across multiple measures. The average evaluation score for Unsatisfactory-rated teachers was 188.4 (out of 400), while replacement teachers scored an average of 275.6. Classroom observation ratings also improved, with replacement teachers scoring an average of 2.65 compared to 1.80 for the exited low-rated teachers. Additionally, value-added measures (VAMs) for student achievement growth were higher among replacement teachers.

• Long-term impact on teacher quality: The study shows that the removal of low-rated teachers led to an overall improvement in teacher quality at the school level. In schools where Unsatisfactory-rated teachers exited, the average teacher quality in the same grade or subject improved significantly in the following years. The policy-induced exit of low-rated teachers resulted in a 0.6 standard deviation increase in evaluation scores and a 0.76 standard deviation increase in classroom observation ratings.

• Policy simulation findings: Simulations suggest that CPS could improve teacher quality further by raising the threshold for satisfactory teaching. If more teachers were identified as low-performing and exited, there would be sufficient high-quality replacements available in the teacher labor market. The study finds that at hypothetical higher thresholds (230 and 250 points), replacement teachers would still outperform the low-rated teachers they replaced.

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Conclusion

The findings suggest that personnel evaluation policies can be an effective mechanism for improving teacher quality by increasing the exit of low-performing educators. The study provides strong evidence that removing low-rated teachers and replacing them with higher-performing teachers results in substantial improvements in the overall quality of instruction.

However, the study also highlights limitations in the effectiveness of current evaluation systems. Because fewer than 1% of CPS teachers received Unsatisfactory ratings annually, the overall impact of the policy was constrained. Raising the evaluation threshold could lead to greater improvements in teacher quality without overwhelming the labor market with excessive vacancies.

The study contributes to policy discussions by demonstrating that evaluation-based accountability policies can work, particularly when tied to high-stakes consequences. The findings suggest that school districts should consider both evaluation-driven accountability and strategic hiring practices to maximize improvements in teacher effectiveness.

Future research could explore the long-term career trajectories of teachers who exit under evaluation reforms and assess the broader impacts of such policies on student achievement across multiple school districts. Additionally, studies could investigate whether professional development programs could complement evaluation-based accountability measures to improve teacher quality without requiring large-scale dismissals.