Highlighted Publications




 

Hegde, Ljungqvist, and Raj (2026) ask whether racial disparities persist in workplace promotions when employees meet objective, formula-based promotion standards. They examine administrative records for 13,721 U.S. Patent and Trademark Office examiners from 2001–2015, including promotion eligibility, job performance, pay, and career progression. They find that promotion-eligible Black examiners were about 20% less likely than comparable White examiners to receive timely promo

Kennedy et al. (2026) examine how corporate tax cuts affect firms and workers. They use employer-employee matched federal tax records covering 49,235 U.S. firms and 231,360 firm-year observations surrounding the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They find that larger tax cuts increased firms’ investment, employment, payrolls, sales, and profits. Capital increased 4.6%, employment 1.3%, and payrolls 2.0%. Earnings gains, however, were concentrated near the top: average earnings rose

Calem, Henderson, and Wang (2026) ask which household and state-level factors explain who remains unbanked in the United States. They analyze FDIC household surveys from 2015, 2017, and 2019, each with more than 32,000 respondents, combined with state-level measures. They find that unbanked rates fell from 7.0% in 2015 to 5.4% in 2019, but large disparities remained. In 2019, households earning under $15,000 were more than ten times less likely to be banked than those earning

Chin, Cortes, and Morales (2026) examine whether DACA’s temporary work authorization changed the types and quality of jobs held by young undocumented immigrants. Using American Community Survey data from 2005–2018, occupational injury data, and Current Population Survey information, they employ a difference-in-differences design. Among workers ages 22–24, DACA reduced the likelihood of working in immigrant-concentrated occupations by 2.7 percentage points for men and 6.4 poin

Petek (2026) examines how the rise of remote work has changed California’s labor market. Using the Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, and data on online job postings, he finds that remote work remains far above pre-pandemic levels. About 13 percent of California employees worked mainly from home in 2024, roughly triple the 2019 rate. The effects are concentrated in technology, finance and accounting, business and government operations, and sales and marketi

Potter, Kurmann, and Hobijn (2026) examine how noncompete agreements affect workers’ wages and job tenure and whether these effects differ by education. They use National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 data, comparing workers who change jobs and noncompete status with similar job changers whose status remains unchanged. They find sharply different wage effects. Among workers without a four-year college degree, signing a noncompete produces significantly slower wage growth

Chang et al. (2026) examine whether stronger enforcement of noncompete agreements affects worker productivity and economic output. They use a new state-level manufacturing dataset covering all U.S. states from 1987 to 2021, supplemented with broader state-level economic data. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design, they find that stronger noncompete enforcement reduces manufacturing productivity and output. A 10% increase in enforceability is associated with a 15.0%

Pichler et al. (2026) examine whether governments should mandate paid sick leave and how such policies should balance worker protection against excessive absenteeism. They review international data and causal studies of U.S. sick-leave mandates. They find that expanded access increases sick-leave use but produces important benefits. Newly covered U.S. workers take about two additional sick days annually, while influenza-like illness falls by roughly 6–11 percent following man

Dillon et al. (2026) examined whether providing knowledge workers with an integrated generative AI tool changed how they spent their time and completed their work. They analyzed telemetry data from a randomized field experiment involving 7,137 employees across 66 large firms who were assigned either access to Microsoft 365 Copilot or a control group over six months. They found that workers who regularly used Copilot spent about two fewer hours per week on email (a 17% reducti

Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg (2025) asked whether the COVID-19 pandemic permanently changed city structure by shifting workers toward remote work and whether those changes differed across cities. They analyzed a dynamic urban economic model together with U.S. cell phone mobility data from SafeGraph, housing price data from Zillow, Census and American Community Survey data, and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. They found that many large cities stabilized at ab

Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman (2026) ask how mergers affect consumer prices and whether U.S. antitrust enforcement effectively identifies harmful mergers. They examine 129 consumer product markets involved in 47 mergers from 2006 to 2017, using NielsenIQ retail scanner data. They find that mergers increased prices by only 0.4% on average, but effects varied substantially. Twenty-five percent of mergers raised prices by more than 3.9%, while another quarter reduced pri

Unrath et al. (2026) asked whether unconditional state child tax credits can reduce child poverty without substantially reducing parental employment. They used American Community Survey data, Supplemental Poverty Measure data, tax simulations, and labor supply estimates from recent state child tax credit studies to model the effects of different credit amounts and income phaseouts. They found that a $1,000 credit per child, phased out beginning at $50,000 for single filers, w

Mayer, Méjean, and Thoenig (2026) examined whether credible threats of economic sanctions can deter war, using the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study. They combined international trade data from 1995–2021 with a quantitative model linking trade, diplomacy, and the probability of armed conflict. Their analysis found that Ukraine’s reduced economic dependence on Russia after 2014 lowered the economic costs of war and increased the predicted risk of conflict by more than 5

Filippucci, Gal, and Schief (2026) examine how much generative artificial intelligence is likely to increase productivity across the U.S. economy and whether uneven gains across industries will reduce overall growth. They combine data on AI task exposure, industry employment patterns, AI adoption rates, and U.S. input-output tables covering 65 industries. They estimate that AI could increase aggregate total factor productivity growth by about 0.87 percentage points annually o

Kouchekinia, Neumark, and Bruckner (2026) examined whether staying employed slows cognitive decline among older adults before retirement age. They asked whether losing work because of local labor market shocks causes faster declines in memory and cognitive functioning. The authors analyzed 1996–2018 data from the Health and Retirement Study, combined with local labor market and industry employment data across U.S. commuting zones. Using a Bartik labor-demand instrument to est

Garthwaite et al. (2025) examine who benefits from the economic rents generated by college sports under amateurism. They ask how revenue from football and men’s basketball is redistributed within athletic departments. They analyze panel data on revenues and expenditures from Power Five athletic programs (2006–2019), along with player-level demographic data. They find substantial rent-sharing: about $0.31 of each additional dollar is reinvested in revenue sports, while roughly

Geruso and Spears (2026) ask whether persistently low global fertility is likely to continue and potentially lead to long-term population decline. They analyze United Nations fertility data, historical birth trends, and cohort fertility data from sources like the Human Fertility Database and Demographic and Health Surveys. They find that global fertility has fallen from about 4.85 in 1950 to roughly 2.25 today, with 67% of the world living below replacement levels. They show

Starr (2026) examines whether noncompete clauses benefit or harm workers, firms, and markets. He synthesizes evidence from surveys, administrative datasets, natural experiments, and field experiments, including nationally representative worker surveys and state-level policy changes. The central question is whether noncompetes function as efficient contracts or anticompetitive restraints. He finds that noncompetes are widespread across occupations and typically reduce worker m

Cardoso, Salant, and Daubanes (2025) ask whether price caps on Russian oil exports reduce Russia’s profits once it can evade sanctions by expanding a “shadow fleet.” They use a calibrated dynamic simulation model based on global oil market data and observed export patterns. They find that sanctions reduce Russia’s profits by over 20%, but tighter caps can paradoxically increase long-run profits by raising global oil prices and accelerating fleet expansion. For example, a serv

Johnson (2026) examines whether occupational licensing in the United States improves service quality or mainly raises costs and wages for licensed workers. She draws on national labor force data, prior empirical studies, and policy evidence across occupations and states. The evidence shows that licensing is associated with higher wages—often around 15 percent—and in some cases about 4 percent higher over time, while its effects on employment are mixed. Most studies find littl