Highlighted Publications




 

Park and Polachek (2026) examined whether state paid family leave policies increase workforce participation and improve employment outcomes. They analyzed U.S. Census Bureau survey data from 1995 to 2024, comparing states that implemented paid family leave with those that did not. They found that paid leave increased labor force participation among women ages 18–41 by 2.25 percentage points. The increase was larger among mothers with children under age five (3.76 percentage p

Firoozi (2026) examines whether reducing college tuition for out-of-state and international students increases enrollment and encourages graduates to remain in the state. He analyzes a randomized tuition-waiver lottery involving 1,333 students at a major research university, tracking enrollment, employment, and migration over 12 years. Each $10,000 in tuition relief increased university enrollment by 3.2 percentage points and the likelihood of remaining in the state by approx

Petek (2026) examines why California accumulated an unusually large cash balance despite persistent state budget deficits. Using state financial records from 1997 through 2026 and case studies of special funds, he finds that California’s cash balance peaked at $107 billion in May 2024 before declining to approximately $86 billion in June 2026. Much of this growth reflects delayed infrastructure spending, increased federal funding, and accumulated reserves rather than improved

Känzig (2026) asks how carbon pricing affects emissions, the broader economy, and households at different income levels. He examines European Union carbon-market regulations, high-frequency carbon-price data, macroeconomic indicators, and household data. He finds that a carbon-policy shock large enough to raise energy prices by 1% reduces emissions by about 0.75%, but also lowers GDP by roughly 0.3%, reduces industrial production by nearly 1%, and raises unemployment by 0.15

Fieldhouse and Mertens (2026) examine whether government-funded research and development (R&D) increases innovation and economic productivity. They analyze quarterly U.S. data from 1948 through 2021 and identify major changes in federal R&D appropriations that were largely unrelated to short-term economic conditions. They find that increases in nondefense R&D funding produce substantial long-term benefits. A funding shock that eventually raises government R&D capital by 1% in

Pfäuti (2026) examines whether people pay more attention to inflation once it becomes sufficiently high and whether this increased attention amplifies inflation. Using U.S. inflation data and household inflation expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers from 1978–2024, he estimates that attention nearly doubles when annualized inflation crosses a threshold of about 4%, rising from 0.18 to 0.35. He finds that supply shocks increase inflation by about 40

Durlauf, Kim, Lee, and Song (forthcoming) examine how Black-White differences in occupational mobility have changed since the Civil War. They combine linked U.S. census records and 10 large surveys covering 1850–2021 to track occupations across generations. They find especially large gains for Black men born in 1940–1950, with changes in mobility explaining more than 80% of their shift toward non-manual work. Barriers to moving from manual to non-manual occupations also fell

Hegde, Ljungqvist, and Raj (2026) ask whether racial disparities persist in workplace promotions when employees meet objective, formula-based promotion standards. They examine administrative records for 13,721 U.S. Patent and Trademark Office examiners from 2001–2015, including promotion eligibility, job performance, pay, and career progression. They find that promotion-eligible Black examiners were about 20% less likely than comparable White examiners to receive timely promo

Kennedy et al. (2026) examine how corporate tax cuts affect firms and workers. They use employer-employee matched federal tax records covering 49,235 U.S. firms and 231,360 firm-year observations surrounding the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They find that larger tax cuts increased firms’ investment, employment, payrolls, sales, and profits. Capital increased 4.6%, employment 1.3%, and payrolls 2.0%. Earnings gains, however, were concentrated near the top: average earnings rose

Calem, Henderson, and Wang (2026) ask which household and state-level factors explain who remains unbanked in the United States. They analyze FDIC household surveys from 2015, 2017, and 2019, each with more than 32,000 respondents, combined with state-level measures. They find that unbanked rates fell from 7.0% in 2015 to 5.4% in 2019, but large disparities remained. In 2019, households earning under $15,000 were more than ten times less likely to be banked than those earning

Chin, Cortes, and Morales (2026) examine whether DACA’s temporary work authorization changed the types and quality of jobs held by young undocumented immigrants. Using American Community Survey data from 2005–2018, occupational injury data, and Current Population Survey information, they employ a difference-in-differences design. Among workers ages 22–24, DACA reduced the likelihood of working in immigrant-concentrated occupations by 2.7 percentage points for men and 6.4 poin

Petek (2026) examines how the rise of remote work has changed California’s labor market. Using the Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, and data on online job postings, he finds that remote work remains far above pre-pandemic levels. About 13 percent of California employees worked mainly from home in 2024, roughly triple the 2019 rate. The effects are concentrated in technology, finance and accounting, business and government operations, and sales and marketi

Potter, Kurmann, and Hobijn (2026) examine how noncompete agreements affect workers’ wages and job tenure and whether these effects differ by education. They use National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 data, comparing workers who change jobs and noncompete status with similar job changers whose status remains unchanged. They find sharply different wage effects. Among workers without a four-year college degree, signing a noncompete produces significantly slower wage growth

Chang et al. (2026) examine whether stronger enforcement of noncompete agreements affects worker productivity and economic output. They use a new state-level manufacturing dataset covering all U.S. states from 1987 to 2021, supplemented with broader state-level economic data. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design, they find that stronger noncompete enforcement reduces manufacturing productivity and output. A 10% increase in enforceability is associated with a 15.0%

Pichler et al. (2026) examine whether governments should mandate paid sick leave and how such policies should balance worker protection against excessive absenteeism. They review international data and causal studies of U.S. sick-leave mandates. They find that expanded access increases sick-leave use but produces important benefits. Newly covered U.S. workers take about two additional sick days annually, while influenza-like illness falls by roughly 6–11 percent following man

Dillon et al. (2026) examined whether providing knowledge workers with an integrated generative AI tool changed how they spent their time and completed their work. They analyzed telemetry data from a randomized field experiment involving 7,137 employees across 66 large firms who were assigned either access to Microsoft 365 Copilot or a control group over six months. They found that workers who regularly used Copilot spent about two fewer hours per week on email (a 17% reducti

Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg (2025) asked whether the COVID-19 pandemic permanently changed city structure by shifting workers toward remote work and whether those changes differed across cities. They analyzed a dynamic urban economic model together with U.S. cell phone mobility data from SafeGraph, housing price data from Zillow, Census and American Community Survey data, and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. They found that many large cities stabilized at ab

Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman (2026) ask how mergers affect consumer prices and whether U.S. antitrust enforcement effectively identifies harmful mergers. They examine 129 consumer product markets involved in 47 mergers from 2006 to 2017, using NielsenIQ retail scanner data. They find that mergers increased prices by only 0.4% on average, but effects varied substantially. Twenty-five percent of mergers raised prices by more than 3.9%, while another quarter reduced pri

Unrath et al. (2026) asked whether unconditional state child tax credits can reduce child poverty without substantially reducing parental employment. They used American Community Survey data, Supplemental Poverty Measure data, tax simulations, and labor supply estimates from recent state child tax credit studies to model the effects of different credit amounts and income phaseouts. They found that a $1,000 credit per child, phased out beginning at $50,000 for single filers, w

Mayer, Méjean, and Thoenig (2026) examined whether credible threats of economic sanctions can deter war, using the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study. They combined international trade data from 1995–2021 with a quantitative model linking trade, diplomacy, and the probability of armed conflict. Their analysis found that Ukraine’s reduced economic dependence on Russia after 2014 lowered the economic costs of war and increased the predicted risk of conflict by more than 5