Highlighted Publications




 

Mayer, Méjean, and Thoenig (2026) examined whether credible threats of economic sanctions can deter war, using the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study. They combined international trade data from 1995–2021 with a quantitative model linking trade, diplomacy, and the probability of armed conflict. Their analysis found that Ukraine’s reduced economic dependence on Russia after 2014 lowered the economic costs of war and increased the predicted risk of conflict by more than 5

Cardoso, Salant, and Daubanes (2025) ask whether price caps on Russian oil exports reduce Russia’s profits once it can evade sanctions by expanding a “shadow fleet.” They use a calibrated dynamic simulation model based on global oil market data and observed export patterns. They find that sanctions reduce Russia’s profits by over 20%, but tighter caps can paradoxically increase long-run profits by raising global oil prices and accelerating fleet expansion. For example, a serv

Federle et al. (2025) ask how wars affect economies in the country where fighting occurs and in nearby or connected countries. They assemble a new 150-year, 60-country dataset containing macroeconomic indicators and war casualty data. They find that an average-intensity war causes output in the war-site economy to fall by about 10 percent, consumer prices to rise roughly 20 percent, and capital stock and productivity to decline. They also show that countries trading with the

The research examines whether development programs can counter insurgencies, using a randomized controlled trial of Afghanistan’s...

This study investigates whether right-wing terrorism increases support for populist parties in Germany. Using data from German...