Highlighted Publications




 

Federle et al. (2025) ask how wars affect economies in the country where fighting occurs and in nearby or connected countries. They assemble a new 150-year, 60-country dataset containing macroeconomic indicators and war casualty data. They find that an average-intensity war causes output in the war-site economy to fall by about 10 percent, consumer prices to rise roughly 20 percent, and capital stock and productivity to decline. They also show that countries trading with the

The research examines whether development programs can counter insurgencies, using a randomized controlled trial of Afghanistan’s...

This study investigates whether right-wing terrorism increases support for populist parties in Germany. Using data from German...