Highlighted Publications




 

When experts want to persuade, do they trade precise numbers for vague words? In two experiments, de Chaisemartin, Thaler, and Toma (2026) test this. In one, 500 online participants described the odds of drawing a red ball; in the other, 145 academic researchers reported real study results to 66 government policymakers. When rewarded for persuading rather than informing, experts became 25 to 29 percentage points more likely to use words such as "substantial" instead of a numb

Molina and Rudik (2024) examine how much hurricane forecasts reduce damage and improve decision-making. They study all U.S. hurricanes making landfall from 2005–2022, combining detailed county-level data on forecasted and actual wind speeds, federal protective spending, recovery costs, and damages. They find forecasts strongly influence pre-storm spending and that underestimating wind speed significantly raises damages. For example, a 10 m/s underforecast increases county dam

The report asks how misinformation and disinformation about climate science shape public understanding and policy responses. To answer...

This study asks whether the introduction of television reduced labor supply by increasing the value of leisure. Using Social Security...

This study investigates how media coverage of immigration influences the polarization of public attitudes. Using French television news...