What Factors Influence Global Support for Climate Policies?

This study explores what factors influence global support for climate policies by analyzing survey data from 40,000 respondents across 20 countries. Researchers examined perceptions of climate policy effectiveness, economic and distributional impacts, and self-interest. Three key predictors of support emerged: perceived emissions reduction effectiveness, impact on low-income households, and personal financial effects. Educational videos explaining policy mechanisms increased support, whereas videos highlighting climate change impacts alone did not. Support for carbon taxes increased by approximately 70% when revenues were allocated to environmental or social programs. Opposition correlated strongly with low public transit availability, car dependency, and income constraints.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Dechezleprêtre, Antoine, Adrien Fabre, Tobias Kruse, Bluebery Planterose, Ana Sanchez Chico, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies." AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW (FORTHCOMING). https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20230501&&from=f

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

This study investigates what factors influence global support for climate policies. While broad agreement exists on the importance of addressing climate change, actual support for specific policies remains inconsistent across countries and demographic groups. The research aims to understand why individuals support or oppose climate policies by examining their perceptions of effectiveness, economic and distributional impacts, and self-interest. It also evaluates whether providing additional information about climate policies and their mechanisms can shift public opinion toward stronger climate action.

Previous Literature

The study builds on a growing body of research that examines public attitudes toward climate policies, particularly the challenges of implementing carbon taxes and other mitigation strategies. Prior studies have shown that economic self-interest, political identity, and perceived fairness play significant roles in shaping public support for climate policies.

Drews and van den Bergh (2016) provide an overview of the economic and psychological determinants of climate policy support. Carattini, Carvalho, and Fankhauser (2018) discuss the effectiveness of carbon taxes and the role of public perception in their implementation. Bergquist, Mildenberger, and Stokes (2020) find that linking climate policies with social policies increases public support in the United States.

Another strand of research highlights the role of information in shaping policy preferences. Carattini et al. (2017) and Baranzini and Carattini (2017) show that providing information about the distributional effects of carbon taxes increases support. Mildenberger et al. (2022) demonstrate that misperceptions about climate rebates influence public attitudes toward taxation.

This study extends previous research by incorporating large-scale international survey data from 20 countries and examining multiple climate policies, rather than focusing solely on carbon taxes. It also evaluates the impact of different types of informational interventions, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of public attitudes toward climate action.

Data

The researchers collected survey data from 40,000 respondents across 20 countries between March 2021 and March 2022. The survey was administered by the firms Dynata and Respondi, using nationally representative samples in high-income countries and online-representative samples in middle-income countries.

The survey gathered demographic, socioeconomic, and political data, as well as information on respondents’ energy usage and climate-related behaviors. It also measured knowledge about climate change, perceived effectiveness of policies, and concerns about fairness and economic impact.

To assess the impact of information on policy views, respondents were randomly assigned to one of three groups:

Control group: No additional information provided.
Climate impacts treatment: A video on climate change’s consequences in the respondent’s country.
Climate policies treatment: A video explaining how key climate policies (carbon tax, green infrastructure investments, and a ban on combustion-engine cars) function.

Methods

The study used descriptive and inferential statistical analysis to assess the factors influencing climate policy support. Key methodologies included:

Regression analysis: Used to identify significant predictors of policy support, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors.
Randomized controlled trial (RCT) design: Allowed for causal inference regarding the effect of informational interventions on climate policy support.
Index construction: The researchers created indices to measure climate policy support and willingness to adopt individual climate-friendly behaviors, standardizing survey responses to enable cross-country comparisons.
Heterogeneity analysis: Explored variations in support across countries and demographic subgroups.

By comparing responses from the different treatment groups, the study assessed whether providing information about climate policies versus climate change impacts alone influenced public attitudes.

Findings and Size Effects

Key Predictors of Climate Policy Support

The study identified three primary factors that shape public attitudes toward climate policies:

Perceived Effectiveness: Respondents were more likely to support policies they believed would significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Distributional Concerns: Policies perceived as disproportionately burdening low-income households faced greater opposition.
Self-Interest: Individuals were less likely to support policies they thought would negatively impact their own finances.

While concern about climate change was high across countries (75%+ of respondents agreed it was a major issue), it was not a strong predictor of policy support. Instead, respondents focused on the perceived effectiveness and fairnessof specific policies.

Support for Specific Policies

Green infrastructure investments (e.g., public transit, renewable energy projects) were the most popular, with 55-80% support across countries.
Carbon taxes were unpopular in their basic form (37% support in high-income countries, 59% in middle-income countries). However, when the revenue was earmarked for environmental programs or redistributed to low-income households, support increased by up to 70%.
Bans on combustion-engine cars had higher support (60-70%) when paired with investments in public transit but were less popular when implemented as standalone measures.
Cattle-related policies (e.g., bans on intensive cattle farming, taxes on beef) were among the least supported policies in nearly all countries.

The Role of Informational Interventions

The experimental component of the study revealed that:

Climate policy videos increased support for targeted policies, particularly carbon taxes and green infrastructure programs.
Videos about climate change impacts alone did not significantly change policy views, though they did increase willingness to engage in private climate-friendly actions (e.g., signing petitions, reducing personal carbon footprints).
The combined effect of both videos led to the largest increase in policy support, demonstrating that people need to understand both the problem (climate change) and the solution (policy mechanisms) to shift their opinions.

Demographic and Behavioral Correlates of Policy Support

Political ideology: Left-leaning respondents were significantly more likely to support climate policies in most countries.
Education: College-educated individuals showed higher support for climate policies, especially in high-income countries.
Income: Higher-income respondents were more supportive in some middle-income countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia) but not consistently across all nations.
Age: Older respondents were more supportive in middle-income countries but less supportive in high-income ones like the U.S. and France.
Car dependency: Opposition to climate policies was stronger among individuals who relied heavily on personal vehicles, particularly in areas with poor public transit.

Conclusion

This study provides new international evidence on public attitudes toward climate policies, demonstrating that effectiveness, fairness, and self-interest play crucial roles in shaping support.

Key policy implications include:

Framing matters: Public acceptance increases when policies are perceived as effective and equitable. Policymakers should communicate how policies reduce emissions and benefit low-income populations.
Revenue allocation is critical: Carbon taxes gain greater support when revenues are used for environmental projects or progressive redistribution.
Information interventions can shift opinions: Educational videos explaining policy mechanisms led to significant increases in support, highlighting the importance of policy literacy in climate action.

While concern for climate change is widespread, it does not automatically translate into policy support. Policymakers must address concerns about fairness and personal impact to build broad-based support for ambitious climate action.