How Does the Design of a State's Tuition-Free College Program Influence Community Colleges’ Offerings and Student Enrollment?

This study asked how the design of Virginia’s “Get a Skill, Get a Job, Get Ahead” (G3) tuition-free college program affected community college program offerings and student enrollment. Using administrative data from the Virginia Community College System from 2016–17 to 2022–23, the researchers compared changes in G3-eligible and ineligible programs. They found that eligible program offerings increased by about 30% within two years of the policy’s start, while student enrollment in those programs grew by roughly 3–5 percentage points (a 30% rise). At the same time, enrollment in non-eligible, transfer-oriented programs fell by about 3%.

The Policy Scientist’s Perspective

This study examines one of the most pressing issues in higher education policy: how the design of tuition-free college programs can influence both access and workforce preparation. The topic is broadly important as states struggle with declining college enrollments, skill shortages, and questions about the economic return to postsecondary education. The research appears in a reputable scholarly outlet and offers an early, data-driven look at Virginia’s G3 initiative, making it timely as many states consider similar workforce-based programs. Although the study’s design is descriptive, its use of comprehensive statewide administrative data strengthens its credibility and relevance beyond Virginia’s borders.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Sparks, D., & Bonilla, S. (2025). The role of policy design in free college programs: Evidence from Virginia. Education Finance and Policy. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp.a.23

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

The study investigates how the design of Virginia’s “Get a Skill, Get a Job, Get Ahead” (G3) tuition-free college program affected both institutional behavior and student enrollment patterns across the state’s community college system. Specifically, it asks whether linking tuition-free eligibility to workforce-aligned academic programs influenced which programs colleges offered and which programs students chose to enter. The authors aim to understand not just whether “free college” policies increase overall enrollment, but how program design—particularly the inclusion of labor market–based eligibility rules—reshapes educational and workforce pipelines.

The question reflects a broader national issue: as tuition-free programs expand, policymakers must decide whether to target affordability, workforce development, or both. By examining a single state’s initiative in detail, the paper provides insight into how design choices affect the balance between accessibility and labor market alignment.

Previous Literature

The article situates itself within a rapidly growing body of research on “free college” or “college promise” programs, which have proliferated since 2014. Early studies, such as those on Tennessee’s Promise and Oregon’s Promise, generally found positive effects on college enrollment, particularly among first-generation and low-income students. However, most of these studies focused on programs aimed at expanding access rather than shaping labor supply.

Existing research emphasizes that the effects of tuition-free programs depend heavily on design features. Programs that are easy to understand and broadly accessible, such as Tennessee’s, have been associated with enrollment gains of 5–10 percentage points. In contrast, those with restrictive income caps, residency rules, or complex post-graduation conditions, such as New York’s Excelsior Scholarship, have produced negligible effects. These findings point to a central trade-off: broader eligibility increases enrollment but raises costs, while more targeted programs may improve efficiency but limit participation.

The authors also note that community colleges—the primary beneficiaries of free college policies—have increasingly been asked to align their curricula with workforce needs. Research by Strohl, Grosz, and others has shown that community colleges often underproduce credentials in high-demand technical fields. Yet evidence on how tuition-free policies influence institutional adaptation remains limited. Virginia’s G3 program provides an opportunity to assess how workforce-linked eligibility criteria shape both institutional offerings and student choices.

Data

The analysis draws on detailed administrative data from the Virginia Community College System (VCCS) covering the academic years 2016–17 through 2022–23. The dataset includes transcript, financial aid, and demographic information for more than 178,000 first-time-in-college (FTIC) students, as well as annual data on the number and type of programs offered by each of the 23 community colleges in the system.

Student-level variables include age, gender, race or ethnicity, first-generation status, family income (as reported on the FAFSA), and program of study. Institutional-level variables capture the number of programs offered, their credential type (certificate, applied associate, or transfer-oriented associate), and whether they qualified for G3 funding. Program eligibility was determined using Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) codes specified in state legislation.

The dataset allows for both longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis, enabling the authors to examine changes in program offerings and enrollment patterns before and after the policy’s implementation. Because the data come directly from statewide administrative records, they offer high reliability and represent nearly the entire population of community college students in Virginia, minimizing concerns about sampling bias and missing data.

Methods

The study employs a descriptive, quasi-longitudinal design rather than a causal one. Two complementary approaches are used. First, the authors apply an event study framework to estimate changes in enrollment and program offerings before and after the introduction of G3. The “treated” group consists of programs and students eligible for tuition-free status under G3, while the comparison group consists of ineligible programs and students.

Second, the study tracks the behavior of students who entered college before the policy was adopted—specifically the 2019 cohort—to determine whether they switched into eligible programs once tuition-free benefits became available. This allows for an analysis of behavioral adaptation among continuing students.

While the methods are descriptive, they incorporate time trends and pre-policy baselines, which strengthen the validity of the observed relationships. The event study design helps distinguish policy-related shifts from preexisting enrollment patterns. However, the analysis does not employ causal inference strategies such as difference-in-differences or regression discontinuity, which limits the ability to attribute effects definitively to G3 rather than concurrent influences such as pandemic-related enrollment fluctuations.

Findings/Size Effects

The study’s central finding is that Virginia’s G3 policy had measurable effects on both institutional offerings and student behavior, largely consistent with the program’s workforce-oriented design.

On the institutional side, community colleges expanded the number of programs eligible for tuition-free status by roughly 30% within two years of the program’s implementation. This expansion was driven primarily by new or reclassified certificate and applied associate degree programs in high-demand fields such as healthcare, skilled trades, and information technology. Ineligible programs—particularly transfer-oriented programs—showed minimal change or slight declines in availability.

On the student side, enrollment in G3-eligible programs increased substantially. The share of first-time students entering eligible programs rose from about 12% in 2016–17 to roughly 25% in 2022–23. Event study results suggest a 3–5 percentage point increase in eligible program enrollment in the years following adoption—a gain of approximately 30% relative to baseline. Meanwhile, enrollment in ineligible transfer-oriented programs declined by around 2–3 percentage points.

The shifts were particularly pronounced among students from low-income and first-generation backgrounds, who tend to be most sensitive to price and most responsive to simplified “free college” messaging. Students who had completed the FAFSA and those with family incomes below 200% of the federal poverty level were especially likely to enroll in eligible programs.

Additionally, some students who had enrolled prior to the policy’s implementation switched programs to gain eligibility. Among those entering in 2019, the proportion enrolled in G3-eligible programs increased from 15% at entry to 22% by 2021, and the share who switched into eligible programs rose from 5% to 9% over the same period. These patterns suggest that G3 not only attracted new students but also reshaped the academic trajectories of continuing ones.

However, the policy also produced offsetting effects. Gains in workforce-aligned programs were partially balanced by a decline in transfer-oriented enrollment, suggesting that some students may have been diverted from four-year degree pathways toward shorter-term occupational training. This trade-off underscores a policy tension between promoting immediate employment and supporting longer-term educational advancement.

Conclusion

The Virginia G3 initiative provides one of the first large-scale examples of a tuition-free college program intentionally aligned with state workforce priorities. The study finds that its targeted design successfully stimulated institutional adaptation and student enrollment in high-demand occupational programs. Both colleges and students responded rapidly to the incentives embedded in the policy, leading to a 30% expansion in eligible program offerings and a similar proportional increase in student participation.

At the same time, the findings highlight inherent trade-offs in design. By emphasizing workforce credentials, G3 may inadvertently reduce participation in transfer-oriented programs that lead to bachelor’s degrees, which typically offer greater long-term earnings potential. The challenge for policymakers is to balance short-term labor market responsiveness with the broader goal of educational mobility.

Although the analysis does not establish causal relationships, it provides strong descriptive evidence that program design—not just the presence of tuition-free status—plays a central role in determining how students and institutions respond. The comprehensiveness of the administrative dataset and the inclusion of multiple pre- and post-policy years lend credibility to the observed trends.

The implications extend beyond Virginia. Many states are now experimenting with tuition-free programs that link eligibility to workforce priorities. This study offers early empirical insight into what such policies can achieve and what unintended consequences may arise. As more states follow similar paths, continued evaluation will be essential to understanding whether these programs can both expand access and strengthen the alignment between education and employment.