Do Climate Extremes Trigger Food Price Spikes and Threaten Societal Stability?

This study explores how climate extremes drive food price spikes and the wider societal risks they pose. Drawing on climatological data, government statistics, and global media reports from 2022–2024, the authors document instances where heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall led to sharp increases in food prices. Size effects include a 70% rise in Korean cabbage prices, 300% increase in cocoa, and 80% spike in U.S. vegetables. These shocks worsen food insecurity, health outcomes, inflation, and political instability. The findings underscore the growing threat that climate-induced food price volatility poses to economic and societal systems, especially under continued global warming.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Kotz, M., Donat, M. G., Lancaster, T., Parker, M., Smith, P., Taylor, A. & Vetter, S. H. (2025). Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks. Environmental Research Letters, 20(8), 081001. https://abdn.elsevierpure.com/en/publications/climate-extremes-food-price-spikes-and-their-wider-societal-risks 

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

This article by Kotz et al. (2025) addresses the following central question: How do climate extremes contribute to food price spikes, and what are the broader societal risks that stem from these disruptions? The authors aim to explore the linkage between unprecedented climate events—such as extreme heat, droughts, and heavy precipitation—and rapid, substantial increases in food prices. They further examine how such price spikes affect food security, public health, inflation, and political stability across both developed and developing economies.

Previous Literature

The relationship between climate change and agriculture has long been a topic of scientific concern. Prior studies have established that rising temperatures negatively affect crop yields, particularly in heat-sensitive regions. Rezaei et al. (2023) documented these yield impacts extensively. Kotz et al. (2024) and Faccia et al. (2021) have previously shown that temperature extremes contribute to higher inflation, with food prices acting as a key transmission channel. Additional literature links food insecurity to adverse health outcomes and increased social unrest, including historical episodes like the Arab Spring (Bellemare, 2015). Yet most prior studies have focused on aggregate data or used econometric models that may miss localized or rapid-onset disruptions. This article adds to the literature by combining real-time media narratives with climatological and economic data to provide a global, contextualized view of recent climate-induced food price shocks.

Data

The authors assemble a hybrid dataset drawing from:

1. Government Statistics: Official food price indexes from national agencies in countries affected by climate extremes.

2. Media Reports: A global review of reputable news outlets that documented food price spikes attributed to extreme weather events.

3. Climatological Data:

   
   

   • ERA5 monthly average surface air temperatures for heat events (1940–2024),

   • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for droughts (1901–2023),

   • Daily and multi-month precipitation totals from ERA5 for heavy rainfall.

   
   

Table S1 in the supplementary materials provides specific sourcing and methodological details. To reduce bias, the authors selected only widely reported events corroborated by multiple sources and supplemented by official statistics.

Methods

The article adopts a narrative synthesis method supported by climatological data to link extreme climate events with abrupt food price changes. The methodology involves three major steps:

1. Identification of Events: Using global media sources, the authors document high-profile food price spikes reported between 2022 and 2024.

2. Climatological Assessment: They evaluate whether these events coincided with unprecedented weather anomalies using percentile thresholds based on long-term data. Events were flagged as extreme if they exceeded historical records prior to 2020.

3. Contextual Analysis: Each food price spike is contextualized within broader societal conditions, such as market structure, labor conditions, and existing vulnerabilities (e.g., income levels, health infrastructure).

This mixed-method approach enables the authors to build both a descriptive and analytical understanding of the dynamics between climate shocks and food system volatility.

Findings/Size Effects

The findings show a clear pattern: extreme climate conditions—especially those without historical precedent—have triggered sudden and substantial spikes in food prices worldwide. Some notable examples include:

• East Asia (2024): Heatwaves across Japan, South Korea, China, and India led to record-breaking monthly temperatures. These events drove the price of Korean cabbage up by 70% (September 2024 vs. September 2023), Japanese rice by 48%, and overall vegetable prices in China by 30%.

• United States (2022): Unprecedented drought in California and Arizona, which produce over 40% of U.S. vegetables, contributed to an 80% year-over-year rise in vegetable producer prices by November 2022.

• Southern Europe (2022–2023): Severe droughts in Spain and Italy, major olive oil producers, led to a 50% increase in olive oil prices across the EU by January 2024.

• West Africa (2024): Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce 60% of global cocoa, experienced extreme heat and prolonged drought. The result was a 300% surge in global cocoa prices by April 2024.

• Brazil and Vietnam (2024): Heat and drought impacted coffee harvests, triggering global price increases and affecting consumers far beyond the origin countries.

The authors also highlight that these food price shocks are often regressive in nature, disproportionately affecting low-income households. For example, U.S. data show that the lowest income quintile spends approximately 33% of income on food, compared to only 8% in the highest quintile. Thus, price spikes are more burdensome for those with limited disposable income, particularly in developing countries where food comprises a larger share of household expenses.

Beyond direct affordability, the authors outline several wider societal risks:

1. Food Security: Households either consume less, substitute with cheaper and less nutritious foods, or divert spending from other necessities. Each option can reduce quality of life and increase dependency on aid.

2. Public Health: As nutritious foods become cost-prohibitive, health outcomes deteriorate. Malnutrition and chronic diseases (e.g., diabetes, cardiovascular disease) are expected to rise, particularly among vulnerable populations like children and the elderly.

3. Macroeconomic Stability: Food prices feed into overall inflation, challenging central banks’ price stability mandates. This is especially problematic in developing economies where food carries a heavier weight in consumer price indices.

4. Political Stability: Historical and contemporary examples link food price inflation to unrest and political turnover. Recent evidence cited by the authors shows that high food inflation reduced support for Democrats in the 2024 U.S. election and increased support for populist parties in advanced economies since 1948.

Conclusion

Kotz et al. conclude that climate-induced food price spikes are not isolated economic phenomena but catalytic events that affect entire systems—healthcare, inflation management, political stability, and societal resilience. The frequency and magnitude of such spikes are expected to increase as the world continues to warm, especially if emissions remain unchecked. While mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) remains the most important lever to limit future risk, the authors stress the urgency of developing robust adaptation strategies.

They propose several policy and research priorities:

• Climate Forecasting: Seasonal and multi-annual climate predictions should be leveraged for agricultural and price forecasting. Financial institutions and governments may use temperature models for early warning systems.

• Agricultural Adaptation: Long-term solutions like crop switching and irrigation offer potential, but are constrained by water scarcity, regulatory hurdles, and resource limitations.

• Socioeconomic Resilience: Social safety nets such as index-linked benefits or targeted nutritional programs for at-risk groups (children, elderly, pregnant women) could buffer vulnerable populations from the worst consequences of food inflation.

• Research Gaps: Multidisciplinary research is needed to better understand the complex interaction of climate and socio-economic systems. Priority areas include trade-offs between local food production and global trade, the role of agricultural subsidies, and the design of scalable, climate-resilient food systems.

Ultimately, the article delivers a clear warning: as climate extremes intensify, the cascading consequences for food prices will amplify multiple societal risks. These risks are unevenly distributed, systemically connected, and globally relevant—demanding urgent, coordinated action from researchers, policymakers, and the international community.