Do Immigrants Have Lower Incarceration Rates Than US-Born Individuals?

This study examines whether immigrants have lower incarceration rates than US-born individuals over the past 150 years. Using full-count census data (1870–1940) and American Community Survey (1950–2020) records, the authors construct a long-term, nationally representative dataset. Findings show that immigrants have consistently had lower incarceration rates, with the gap widening since 1960. Today, immigrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than US-born individuals (30% relative to US-born Whites). This trend holds across all immigrant groups and is not explained by demographic changes or immigration policies. The study suggests broader economic and social factors drive this divergence​.

Full Citation and Link to Article

Abramitzky, Ran, Leah Boustan, Elisa Jácome, Santiago Pérez, and Juan David Torres. 2024. "Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap Between Immigrants and the US-Born, 1870–2020." AER: Insights 6(4): 453–471. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20230459

Extended Summary

Central Research Question

The study investigates the long-term relationship between immigration and incarceration in the United States. Specifically, the authors ask:

"Have immigrants consistently had lower incarceration rates than US-born individuals, and if so, why has this gap widened over time?"

This question is significant because public and political discourse often links immigration to crime, despite limited empirical evidence. The study aims to provide the first nationally representative, long-run dataset (1870–2020) to assess whether immigrants have been more or less likely to be incarcerated than their US-born counterparts.

Previous Literature

This research builds on prior work that has examined immigrant incarceration rates in specific time periods and locations. Early studies focused on historical incarceration patterns using state prison records (Moehling & Piehl, 2009; 2014), while others analyzed Census data from the late 20th century (Butcher & Piehl, 1998; 2007). These studies generally found that immigrants had lower incarceration rates than US-born men, but lacked a comprehensive, long-term national perspective.

Recent research also examines the relationship between immigration and crime. Some European studies suggest a positive correlation between immigration and crime (Bianchi et al., 2012; Bell et al., 2013), while US studies often find no impact or a negative correlation (Chalfin, 2014; Spenkuch, 2014). The authors contribute to this debate by documenting that immigrants in the US have consistently had lower incarceration rates than US-born individuals for 150 years, with the gap widening since 1960.

This study also engages with broader literature on structural economic changes. Researchers have documented how globalization and automation have disproportionately affected low-skilled US-born workers (Autor et al., 2006; 2013). The study suggests that the widening incarceration gap may reflect the diverging economic and social trajectories of low-skilled immigrants and US-born men.

Data

The study constructs the first nationally representative, long-run dataset on immigrant incarceration, combining multiple historical sources:

1. Full-count US Census data (1870–1940) – Captures all incarcerated individuals in the United States every ten years.

2. Census samples and American Community Survey (ACS) data (1950–2020) – Uses the largest available samples for more recent decades.

3. Historical state prison records – Supplementary data from select states to validate trends.

4. Geographic and demographic data – Includes country of origin, race, education, and employment status.

The dataset enables the authors to compare incarceration rates of immigrants and US-born individuals from 1870 to 2020, both nationally and by country of origin.

Methods

The study employs descriptive and econometric methods to analyze incarceration trends. The key approaches include:

1. Comparing incarceration rates between immigrants and US-born individuals from 1870 to 2020.

2. Examining trends within immigrant subgroups, including Mexicans, Europeans, Chinese, and other major sending regions.

3. Controlling for observable characteristics (age, race, education, marital status, state of residence) to assess whether demographic changes explain the incarceration gap.

4. Assessing the impact of immigration policies, including deportations and detentions, on incarceration trends.

The researchers use ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions to estimate incarceration gaps while controlling for demographic variables. They also analyze trends separately for citizen and noncitizen immigrants to rule out deportation effects.

Findings & Size Effects

The study finds strong and consistent evidence that immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than US-born individuals for the past 150 years, with the gap widening since 1960.

1. Lower Incarceration Rates for Immigrants

   • From 1870 to 1950, immigrants had slightly lower incarceration rates than US-born men.

   • Since 1960, the gap has widened significantly. Today, immigrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than US-born individuals.

   • Compared to US-born White men, immigrants are 30% less likely to be incarcerated.

2. Declining Incarceration Rates Across All Immigrant Groups

   • Historically, European immigrants had similar incarceration rates to US-born men. Today, they have significantly lower rates.

   • Chinese immigrants had incarceration rates similar to the US-born before 1960, but now they are among the least likely to be incarcerated.

   • Mexican and Central American immigrants had higher incarceration rates in the past but have had lower rates than US-born men since 1960. However, detentions related to immigration enforcement inflate recent incarceration figures for this group.

3. Controlling for Demographics Does Not Explain the Gap

   • Immigrants today tend to be younger, less educated, and earn lower incomes—factors typically associated with higher incarceration rates.

   • Yet, even after controlling for these characteristics, immigrants still have significantly lower incarceration rates than US-born men.

   • The gap is even larger when comparing individuals with similar education levels—suggesting that social and economic resilience among immigrants plays a role.

4. No Evidence That Deportations Explain the Decline

   • The decline in immigrant incarceration rates is not driven by increased deportations.

   • The trend emerges decades before the rise in mass deportations (2000s).

   • The incarceration gap exists even among naturalized US citizens, who cannot be deported.

5. Structural Economic Changes Likely Play a Role

   • The divergence in incarceration rates mirrors other economic and social trends.

   • Since the 1960s, low-skilled US-born men have faced worsening employment prospects and lower marriage rates, while low-skilled immigrants have maintained stable employment.

   • Immigrants tend to work in manual and service-sector jobs, which have remained stable, whereas US-born workers in routine and manufacturing jobs have been more affected by automation and globalization.

6. Policy Implications

   • The findings challenge the narrative that immigration increases crime.

   • Policies that make immigration more difficult (e.g., restrictions on work visas) may reduce labor market resilience rather than improve public safety.

   • Criminal justice policies should consider broader economic and social factors rather than focusing solely on immigration status.

     
     

Conclusion

This study provides the first comprehensive, long-run analysis of immigrant incarceration rates in the United States. The findings debunk the myth that immigrants contribute to higher crime rates. Instead, the evidence suggests that immigrants have consistently had lower incarceration rates than US-born men for 150 years, with the gap widening in recent decades.

The authors argue that structural economic changes—rather than demographic shifts or immigration policy—explain this trend. While low-skilled US-born men have faced declining job opportunities and increasing incarceration rates, immigrants have maintained stable employment and social mobility, contributing to lower incarceration rates.

This research has important implications for immigration and criminal justice policy. It suggests that reducing barriers to immigrant labor market participation—rather than imposing stricter immigration enforcement—may lead to better economic and social outcomes for all workers. Future studies should explore how specific economic policies(e.g., job training programs, wage subsidies) can support at-risk US-born populations while maintaining the benefits of immigration.