Highlighted Publications




 

The study asks whether countries that are more connected to global financial markets recover more quickly from natural disasters. The authors use quarterly data from 61 advanced and emerging economies between 1970 and 2018, including detailed information on floods, storms, earthquakes, and other sudden disasters. They compare economic outcomes—GDP, consumption, and investment—between countries with high versus low levels of cross-border financial assets and liabilities. They

The study asks whether intensive college advising helps low-income students earn bachelor’s degrees and why it works. The authors use data from a multisite randomized controlled trial, baseline surveys, advisor–student interaction records, and National Student Clearinghouse enrollment data. They find that advising increases four-year college enrollment by about 9 percentage points and raises bachelor’s degree completion by 7.6 percentage points within five years—about a 16 pe

This study asks whether giving teachers detailed maps of their students’ classroom social networks can reduce social isolation and antisocial behavior. Using data from an RCT in 46 Italian primary schools, the researchers analyzed friendship nominations, incentivized games measuring sabotage and cooperation, and surveys on student well-being. The intervention reduced the share of children reporting no classroom friends by 1.5 percentage points (a 50% relative decrease) and cu

The study asks whether immigration increases local innovation and wage growth in U.S. counties. Using census, ACS, patent records, and wage data from 1975–2010, the authors link immigration shocks to changes in patenting and earnings. They find that an influx of 10,000 immigrants raises patenting by about 1.22 patents per 100,000 residents over five years (a 25 percent increase) and boosts annual wages by roughly $150 per capita (about 8 percent higher wage growth). More educ

The study asks whether ransomware attacks on hospitals disrupt care and harm patients. Using a linked dataset of 74 hospital ransomware attacks (2016–2021) combined with Medicare claims, the authors examine changes in hospital operations and patient outcomes during the attacks. They find that hospital volume drops sharply in the first week: ER, inpatient, and outpatient visits fall by 17–24%, and Medicare revenue declines by 19–39%. Most importantly, patients already admitted

The study asks whether having more classmates whose parents hold advanced degrees increases a student’s chances of entering highly selective university programs. Using Norwegian administrative data that follow students from middle school through early adulthood, the authors link each student to detailed records on peers, parents, grades, university enrollment, and earnings. They find that a one–standard deviation increase in exposure to such peers raises selective-degree enro

The study asks whether homeowners are more likely to move when a new next-door neighbor is of a different race. The authors use national housing transaction data matched with mortgage records, allowing them to observe both household race and the exact timing and location of moves. They compare move rates for homeowners who receive a different-race neighbor immediately next door versus two or three doors away on the same block. Both Black and White homeowners are more likely t

This study examines how cost-effective China’s nationwide tradable-performance-standard (TPS) carbon market is compared with a traditional cap-and-trade (C&T) system. Using plant-level data and a dynamic general-equilibrium model for 2020–2035, the authors estimate that the TPS cuts about 18 billion tons of CO₂ (an 8.6% reduction) at an average cost of roughly 87 RMB per ton. Early on, TPS costs are similar to C&T because existing taxes narrow the efficiency gap, but TPS beco

This article reviews evidence from recent randomized controlled trials and lottery studies, comparing them with older, small-scale interventions. Across studies, modern preschool programs produce much smaller short-term gains (about 0.21 SD vs. 0.45 SD in earlier programs) and show faster fadeout, with impacts shrinking by 62% within a year. The Policy Scientist's Perspective This article addresses an important policy question: why the measured impacts of preschool have weake

This study asks whether Black children in the United States are more likely than equally at-risk White children to be placed in foster care. Using data from over 23 million child maltreatment investigations in 45 states between 2008 and 2020, the researchers compare placement rates while accounting for each child’s risk of future maltreatment. They find that Black children are placed in foster care at significantly higher rates—about 1.2 percentage points more, or 21% higher—

This study asked whether federal and state Universal Free School Meal (UFSM) policies increased student participation in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and School Breakfast Program (SBP). Using school-level meal claims from 25 U.S. states between 2019 and 2024, the authors conducted a difference-in-difference analysis. They found that federal UFSM policies during the COVID-19 pandemic raised participation by 10 percentage points for lunches and 8 for breakfasts. Whe

This study asks whether granting driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants affects the number of fatal car crashes in the United States. Using county-level data from 2007 to 2018 from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Fatality and Injury Reporting System, the researcher analyzed how license reforms influenced crash rates. The results show that allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain licenses increased total fatal crashes by about 5%, or roughly 0.46 more deaths pe

This study asked whether state bans on flavored e-cigarettes reduce vaping or lead to more cigarette smoking among young people and adults. Researchers analyzed survey data from 2015–2023 using the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across six states with flavor bans and several control states. They found that flavor bans reduced e-cigarette use among young adults by about 6.7 percentage points in 2022 and among adults by 1.2 points

This study asked whether limiting malpractice payouts in North Carolina affected how doctors make childbirth decisions, especially the use of cesarean deliveries. Using hospital discharge data from North Carolina and Florida from 2008 to 2017, the authors compared outcomes before and after North Carolina’s 2011 cap on noneconomic damages. They found that c-section rates fell by about 5 percent on average, and nearly 7 percent five years after the law took effect. Doctors also

This article asks why U.S. K–12 academic achievement has been declining since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Using national and state NAEP data from 2009–2019, along with supporting evidence from TIMSS and SEDA, the study finds that achievement losses began around 2013 and were especially large among low-performing students. Scores at the 10th percentile in eighth-grade math fell by about 0.17 standard deviations—roughly equivalent to 4.5 months of learning. The analysis shows

This study asks whether the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansions led to greater use of Certified Nurse Midwives (CNMs) instead of physicians for childbirth. Using U.S. birth certificate data from 2010 to 2019, the authors compared states that expanded Medicaid to those that did not. They found that Medicaid expansions increased CNM-attended births by about one percentage point—an 11% rise—while physician-attended births declined by a similar amount. The increase occurred

This study asks whether the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges , which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, increased mortgage demand among same-sex couples. Using data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act covering nearly all U.S. mortgage applications between 1998 and 2019, the authors compared same-sex and different-sex couples before and after the ruling. They found that mortgage demand by same-sex couples rose by about 12% in states newly affected b

This study asked whether U.S. city gun buyback programs actually reduce gun crime, homicides, or suicides. Using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (1991–2015) and the National Vital Statistics System, the authors analyzed nearly 700 buyback events across more than 400 cities. They found no evidence that these programs lowered firearm-related crime or deaths. Statistically, they could rule out any decrease in gun crime larger than 1.2 percent in the year f

This meta-analysis asked whether text-only e-cigarette warnings about health harms are more effective than the FDA’s nicotine addiction warning. Researchers examined 24 experimental studies including 22,549 participants, measuring outcomes such as attention, risk beliefs, and intentions to vape or quit. Results showed text-only warnings increased attention (d = 0.52), negative emotions (d = 0.65), risk beliefs (d = 0.26), and intentions to quit vaping (d = 0.34), while reduci

This study asked whether participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during early childhood can protect against the long-term cardiovascular effects of food insecurity. Researchers followed 1,071 children from birth to age 22 using data from the Future of Families–Cardiovascular Health Among Young Adults study. They found that early food insecurity was linked to worse cardiovascular health, with a 2.2-point lower Life’s Essential 8 score and 1.4 time

The study asks whether increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) improves air quality and infant health in the United States. Using county-level data from 2010–2021 on EV registrations, air pollution (especially nitrogen dioxide), birth outcomes, and child hospital visits, the authors analyze both fixed-effects and instrumental-variable models. They find that a one standard deviation increase in EV adoption—about 12 per 1,000 vehicles—reduces nitrogen dioxide levels by up

This study asked whether food insecurity in early childhood is linked to poorer cardiovascular health in young adulthood and whether participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) can reduce these risks. Researchers analyzed data from 1,071 children in the Future of Families–Cardiovascular Health Among Young Adults study, following them from ages 3–5 to about age 22. Early childhood food insecurity was associated with a 2.2-point lower overall Life’s Es

This study asks whether changes in state NAEP math scores predict long-term economic and social outcomes for the students who experienced them. The authors link state-level 8th-grade NAEP math results from 1990–2019 to later-life data from the Census, American Community Survey, and FBI crime records. They find that a one–standard deviation increase in 8th-grade math scores is associated with about an 8% rise in adult earnings, higher educational attainment, and lower rates of

This study examined whether legalizing recreational cannabis in U.S. states affected the use of cannabis, cigarettes, and e-cigarettes over five years. Researchers analyzed data from more than 55,000 adults across the United States using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study from 2013 to 2022. They compared states that legalized cannabis with those that did not. Cannabis use increased by 3.28 percentage points and e-cigarette (ENDS) use rose by 1.39 poi