Highlighted Publications




 

Singer (2026) examines whether the duration of remote learning in 2020–21 affected student attendance after the pandemic. He uses longitudinal administrative data on nearly one million Michigan students from 2017–18 through 2023–24, combined with district-level measures of remote learning duration. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variables, he finds that each additional month of remote learning reduced post-pandemic attendance by about 0.46 percentage points.

Najam and Thompson (2026) examine whether adopting a four-day school week affects juvenile crime. They analyze incident-level crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System across six states, combined with longitudinal data on school schedule adoption from 2005–2019. Using a difference-in-differences design, they find that four-day school weeks increase juvenile crime by about 12%, driven by a 20% rise in property crime and a 9% rise in violent crime. They also

Bueno, Mawi, Page, and Smith (2026) examine how place-based scholarships affect student borrowing and early academic outcomes. They ask whether receiving the Achieve Atlanta scholarship changes loan use and first-semester performance. Using linked administrative data from Atlanta Public Schools, Achieve Atlanta, and Georgia’s public college systems, they compare recipients to similar non-recipients. They find recipients are 7 percentage points less likely to borrow (18% reduc

Bhai and Hughes (2026) ask whether individuals who enroll in Medicare Advantage at age 65 are systematically different, especially in health, from those who do not. They use administrative claims data (2007–2017) tracking commercially insured individuals transitioning into Medicare, leveraging the age-65 eligibility cutoff. They find strong advantageous selection: healthier individuals are more likely to enroll in Medicare Advantage. For example, having diabetes without compl

Burdick-Will and Stein (2026) ask how commute complexity, especially bus transfers, affects high school students’ attendance, school mobility, and academic performance. They analyze administrative data on all Baltimore City high school students in 2016–17 and 2017–18, exploiting a system-wide transit overhaul as a natural experiment. They find that total travel time has no meaningful effect on outcomes, but requiring a bus transfer increases absenteeism and school switching.

Persico (2026) asks whether prenatal exposure to industrial pollution causes worse long-term economic, educational, and health outcomes. She uses geocoded longitudinal data from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), comparing siblings exposed in utero to pollution from nearby Toxic Release Inventory sites with unexposed siblings . She finds large negative effects: exposed children have about 23% lower wages, 0.76 fewer years of education, and ar

Aboaba et al. (2026) ask whether a low-cost messaging intervention can deter crime among high-risk parolees. They analyze data from a randomized controlled trial in New York, using administrative records on arrests, parole violations, and neighborhood crime. The authors find no meaningful reduction in arrests or violent crime. However, they report a 3 percentage point decline in parole violations—a 15% reduction—and a 2 percentage point decline in absconding violations, a 25%

Morgan et al. (2025) examine whether large, effectiveness-based financial incentives combined with improved hiring authority can attract and retain high-quality educators in low-performing schools. They analyze administrative data from the Dallas Independent School District, including student test scores, teacher evaluations, and staffing records. Using a difference-in-differences design, they find that the reform substantially increased teacher quality and student achievemen

Garthwaite et al. (2025) examine who benefits from the economic rents generated by college sports under amateurism. They ask how revenue from football and men’s basketball is redistributed within athletic departments. They analyze panel data on revenues and expenditures from Power Five athletic programs (2006–2019), along with player-level demographic data. They find substantial rent-sharing: about $0.31 of each additional dollar is reinvested in revenue sports, while roughly

Taylor (2025) examines whether placing foster children in family homes rather than congregate care improves long-term outcomes. He uses national administrative foster care data (2010–2015) linked to survey outcomes at age 21, and applies an instrumental variable based on exits from foster families. He finds that family placement substantially improves outcomes, increasing a combined index of employment, education, and reduced incarceration, homelessness, and substance abuse b

Kleinman (2026) studies whether making it easier to sign up for public benefits increases SNAP enrollment among older adults who already receive SSI. She uses American Community Survey data and compares states that adopted a simplified enrollment system to those that did not. Using a difference-in-differences approach, she finds that easier sign-up leads to higher participation. SNAP enrollment rises by about 8–10 percentage points, or roughly 17–24 percent above the starting

Molina and Rudik (2024) examine how much hurricane forecasts reduce damage and improve decision-making. They study all U.S. hurricanes making landfall from 2005–2022, combining detailed county-level data on forecasted and actual wind speeds, federal protective spending, recovery costs, and damages. They find forecasts strongly influence pre-storm spending and that underestimating wind speed significantly raises damages. For example, a 10 m/s underforecast increases county dam

Price and Song (2024) examine whether temporary cash assistance has long-term effects on adult earnings and children’s outcomes. They use data from the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment, linked to Social Security administrative records over roughly 40 years. They find that adults who received cash assistance earned about $1,800 less annually (a 7.4% decline) and were 6.3 percentage points more likely to apply for disability benefits (about a 20% increase). These ef

Geruso and Spears (2026) ask whether persistently low global fertility is likely to continue and potentially lead to long-term population decline. They analyze United Nations fertility data, historical birth trends, and cohort fertility data from sources like the Human Fertility Database and Demographic and Health Surveys. They find that global fertility has fallen from about 4.85 in 1950 to roughly 2.25 today, with 67% of the world living below replacement levels. They show

Hofmann and Huang (2024) ask whether changes to Medicare Part D—specifically closing the coverage gap—affect drug prices and consumer behavior. They analyze detailed claims data from a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2006–2018, covering about 1.9 billion prescription drug purchases. They find that closing the gap increased drug use, with beneficiaries 5 percentage points less likely to skip prescriptions. However, manufacturers responded by raising prices: highly ex

Clemens and Lewis (2025) ask whether restricting low-skill immigration through the H-2B visa lottery affects U.S. firms and domestic workers. They use survey data on 472 firms that either won or lost a randomized visa lottery in 2021–2022, combined with administrative petition data. They find that firms allowed to hire more H-2B workers increase revenue (elasticity about 0.20–0.22), investment (about 1.5–2.1), and profits (about 0.15). The elasticity of substitution between i

Adger, Ross, and Sloan (2025) examine whether field training officers (FTOs) influence police recruits’ later use of force. They study administrative data from the Dallas Police Department, linking 911 calls, force reports, and officer records from 2013–2019. Using quasi-random assignment of recruits to FTOs, they find that recruits trained by higher-force FTOs are significantly more likely to use force themselves. A one standard deviation increase in an FTO’s prior force pro

Starr (2026) examines whether noncompete clauses benefit or harm workers, firms, and markets. He synthesizes evidence from surveys, administrative datasets, natural experiments, and field experiments, including nationally representative worker surveys and state-level policy changes. The central question is whether noncompetes function as efficient contracts or anticompetitive restraints. He finds that noncompetes are widespread across occupations and typically reduce worker m

Cardoso, Salant, and Daubanes (2025) ask whether price caps on Russian oil exports reduce Russia’s profits once it can evade sanctions by expanding a “shadow fleet.” They use a calibrated dynamic simulation model based on global oil market data and observed export patterns. They find that sanctions reduce Russia’s profits by over 20%, but tighter caps can paradoxically increase long-run profits by raising global oil prices and accelerating fleet expansion. For example, a serv

Johnson (2026) examines whether occupational licensing in the United States improves service quality or mainly raises costs and wages for licensed workers. She draws on national labor force data, prior empirical studies, and policy evidence across occupations and states. The evidence shows that licensing is associated with higher wages—often around 15 percent—and in some cases about 4 percent higher over time, while its effects on employment are mixed. Most studies find littl

Reinmuth and Rockall (2025) examine whether stronger enforcement of non-compete agreements reduces innovation. They analyze U.S. state-level changes in enforceability from 1991–2016, using patent data from the USPTO, firm data from Compustat, and business formation data. They find that increases in enforceability significantly reduce innovation, with patenting declining by about 14% after five years for an average policy change. The negative effects are larger for more novel

Bendtsen (2026) examines whether reducing administrative burdens increases the take-up of social benefits. He analyzes data from 51 field experiments covering 187 treatment effect sizes across multiple countries and programs. Using a meta-analytic framework, he compares interventions that reduce learning demands (information) versus compliance demands (assistance), and distinguishes between application and actual receipt outcomes. He finds that interventions raise application

Weil (2026) asks how continued low fertility would affect the US standard of living, especially age-adjusted consumption per capita. He uses demographic models, stable population simulations, National Transfer Accounts data, and projections of fertility, age structure, and economic variables. He finds that lower fertility modestly reduces long-run living standards, mainly through higher old-age dependency, but this is partly offset by lower investment needs. Quantitatively, r

Nemati (2026) asks whether water-efficiency building codes actually reduce household water use once homes are occupied. He examines monthly residential water billing records from two large water districts in Riverside County, California, linked to property characteristics and weather data. The study compares homes built just before and just after the California Green Building Standards Code (CALGreen) took effect. Nemati finds that homes built under CALGreen use about 11–12 p