Highlighted Publications




 

Geruso and Spears (2026) ask whether persistently low global fertility is likely to continue and potentially lead to long-term population decline. They analyze United Nations fertility data, historical birth trends, and cohort fertility data from sources like the Human Fertility Database and Demographic and Health Surveys. They find that global fertility has fallen from about 4.85 in 1950 to roughly 2.25 today, with 67% of the world living below replacement levels. They show

Hofmann and Huang (2024) ask whether changes to Medicare Part D—specifically closing the coverage gap—affect drug prices and consumer behavior. They analyze detailed claims data from a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2006–2018, covering about 1.9 billion prescription drug purchases. They find that closing the gap increased drug use, with beneficiaries 5 percentage points less likely to skip prescriptions. However, manufacturers responded by raising prices: highly ex

Clemens and Lewis (2025) ask whether restricting low-skill immigration through the H-2B visa lottery affects U.S. firms and domestic workers. They use survey data on 472 firms that either won or lost a randomized visa lottery in 2021–2022, combined with administrative petition data. They find that firms allowed to hire more H-2B workers increase revenue (elasticity about 0.20–0.22), investment (about 1.5–2.1), and profits (about 0.15). The elasticity of substitution between i

Adger, Ross, and Sloan (2025) examine whether field training officers (FTOs) influence police recruits’ later use of force. They study administrative data from the Dallas Police Department, linking 911 calls, force reports, and officer records from 2013–2019. Using quasi-random assignment of recruits to FTOs, they find that recruits trained by higher-force FTOs are significantly more likely to use force themselves. A one standard deviation increase in an FTO’s prior force pro